Chapter 7:
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The problem with determining the peak in world production is one must use estimates to determine ultimate world production. There are three main numbers or concepts used to do this: 1) cumulative production or what is known as reserved production; 2) knowable, undiscovered production; or 3) what is predictable from past trends. From these concepts, we can estimate that ultimate equals cumulative production plus reserved production plus undiscovered production. However, due to each country's different analysis for total production of oil and gas, determining the ultimate world oil production is relatively impossible. A Dr. C.J. Campbell took the time to understand how each country counts its oil and gas production and predicted that the ultimate world recovery is 1.8 trillion barrels of oil.
Each country will have its peak. Hubbert predicted that the United States would reach its peak in the 1970's and it appeared to do so. The country was depending on Texas for the bulk of its oil and when the Texas Railroad Commission announced in 1971 that Texas was at 100 percent production. That is when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was created to control the supply of oil and gas for the world market and drove the Texas oil industry into the ground for a few years. Hubbert suggested that it will take many years to completely deplete the world's supply of oil. However, he also suggested that each country will have its peak and then experience decreasing production from there. We are already seeing that some Middle Eastern countries may be peaking today with their production approaching 100 percent of capacity. So, what does this mean for our industries? Cheap oil production in the Middle East will likely be a thing of the past in the next 10 to 20 years, sparking a feverous interest in alternative fuels.
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While there is no denying that there is a finite amount of oil and gas on this planet, new technologies and recovery methods continue to increase the percentage of an existing field's recoverable oil and gas. At the same time, while the rate of discovery of new fields declines, we are getting better at finding them by digging deeper and in more isolated areas. Who's to say there will not be yet more advances that once again tip the scales in favor of more supply than demand? Alternative Energy Sources
While Yongquist may be correct in calling each of these premises myths, the equation will surely change if the price of oil skyrockets. Change is usually not an instantaneous process, but rather a gradual evolution that occurs over time. page30 |
Types of Alternative Vehicular FuelOne type of alternative fuel is biodiesel. Biodiesel is a diesel fuel replacement made from vegetable oils or animal fats. It contains methyl ester; so, most vehicles do not need to change engines to be able to use it. Claims are made that bio-diesel reduces carbon dioxide emissions by up to 80 percent and also reduces the black smoke associated with fuel combustion by up to 75 percent. It's claimed that using biodiesel eliminates the smell of smoke emission and further emits a smell of doughnuts or popcorn depending of the type of oil used in the fuel. It also is biodegradable and assists with the lubrication of engines and can be mixed with normal fuel. The only downside of this type of fuel is the amount of vegetable oils and animal fats needed to ensure enough fuel for all diesel vehicles in the country. Biodiesel can also soften rubbers overtime causing problems with plastic and rubber hoses contained in engines. The second type of alternative fuel is ethanol, which is a clear, colorless liquid formed from distilling starchy crops such as barley, wheat and corn. This is a gasoline-like biofuel. Bioethanol is a form of ethanol produced from trees and grasses and can be used in the same ways that traditional ethanol is used. Ethanol can be used without many additional costs since it is nearly as cheaply produced than gasoline. Vehicles are not required to make extreme changes to be able to run on ethanol and it is better for the environment than petroleum emissions. Similarly to the biomass fuel, however, it is difficult to imagine how the additional quantity of crops that must be grown to satisfy potential demand. Clearly farmers could not keep up with demand if ethanol was only as the sole basis for vehicular fuel.
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An external combustion type of vehicle would be one that was fueled by steam, coal or organic waste. However, coal can be used to produce gasoline or diesel The process is highly expensive and is not worth it to most countries due to a limited coal supply. Coal is dangerous to mine and it is also a fossil fuel which will eventually run out just as petroleum will. In World War II, when the Germans were cut off from the oil and gas industry through embargos, they used the country's rich supply of coal to produce gasoline for their vehicles. Steam power is also a version of the external combustion vehicle. The Stanley Steamer was created and it effectively used steam just like steam boats would to power the car. However, steam powered automobiles require a burner and are slow. Gasoline powered automobiles continue to be much more efficient. In the end everything comes down to supply and demand. If the price of oil and gas continues to rise, say doubling, and doubling again, the economics of alternative fuels will improve, and mass production technology will be employed to make vehicles that can take advantage of them, perhaps as cheaply as the vehicles we buy today.
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